Of late China has been edging forward towards strengthening its ties with Middle East and Africa. Its focus has thus remained on bilateral economic relations with Iran which abuts Pakistan as its neighbouring brotherly country. The recent uptick in bilateral relations between China and Iran include a $400 Bn investment by the former in Iran while Iran would sell oil on subsidised rates to the rising economic giant for the next 25 years. In a turn of events Iran has ousted India from its Chahbahar Port and Tehran-Zahidan Railway Track projects. This has indeed ramifications for the region particularly Pakistan which has economic and security stakes linked to China, Iran and India.
Genesis and Articulation of Sino-Iranian Cooperation in the wake of Indo-US Perspective
It must be understood that after Iran signed Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) with the US in 2015, India showed interest in developing Chahbahar Port and Tehran-Zahidan Railway Track projects in order to stall Pakistan's economic boom which was in its initial stages as part of CPEC. While President Trump backed off from JCPOA in 2017, India delayed payments for the projects in view of the changed US stance on Iran thus downplaying Iran's economic concerns. The space vacated by India was deftly occupied by China which saw an opportunity in extending a helping hand towards economically stifled Iran suffering at the hands of US sanctions.
Implications of Indo-Iranian Cooperation for Pakistan
While India is out of both the projects mentioned above and China has engaged with Iran, it has implications for Pakistan being immediate neighbour of both countries. First let's consider following:
A. Pakistan and Iran are both Islamic Republics with mutual respect for each other's soverienty. Iran was one of the first countries to recognise Pakistan on its inception.
B. India has been using Iranian soil against Pakistan for its nefarious designs thus jeopardising the internal security situation. The case of Kalbhushan Jadav is a glaring example of its kind where Iranian soil was used for subversive activities inside Pakistan.
C. As an arch-rival India has tried its bit to muzzle the economic growth of Pakistan and this was one of the reasons it was interested in development of Chahbahar Port as a rival to Gwadar Port.
D. India's economic cooperation with Iran has been affecting Pakistan negatively being a fellow Muslim country. Brothers turning rivals was never a good proposition in the first place but India had rocked the deck and played its part.
E. Pakistan was already dealing with India-centered Afghanistan and the new development of Iran cooperating with India posed a serious diplomatic challenge.
Prospects of Sino-Iranian Deal for Pakistan
Now that Sino-Iranian deal is ripe for implementation, it is going to have longlasting impact on Pakistan. Following points need consideration:
A. It will enhance Pak-China-Iran cooperation and will strengthen economic and security ties among the three nations. China is willingly embarking upon its outreach programme and this opportunity will garner the much needed harmony between Iran and Pakistan.
B. Chances of using Iranian soil against Pakistan by India will be diminished to a great extent. It will largely improve Pakistan's security situation in bordering Balochistan. Shared economic interest is likely going to transcend into shared intelligence and military cooperation.
C. There are great prospects of Chahbahar and Gwadar ports being utilised for general good of Pakistan and Iran with China extending its influence in Middle East against the US. It will bear fruitful results and people from Pakistan and Iran will be mutually benifited.
D. India's diminishing influence will have a far-reaching impact on Pak-Iran bilateral relations. With Iran free from Indian influence, Pakistan will have a favourable manoeuvering space to achieve its foreign policy goals in the region.
E. Diplomatically, India will face a major setback since both its rivals (China & Pakistan) will leave no diplomatic space for it to exercise its influence. This in turn will enhance probability of Pakistan faring well as against India on diplomatic front and deal with Afghanistan in a more candid way.
Concluding Thoughts
While China's investment makes an economic way out for Iran, it also opens new vistas for Pak-Iran relations in the fields of economic and security paradigms. The erstwhile Indian influence in Iran is going to be ending and being replaced by Pak-China duo. It will safeguard the interests of Pakistan and will let the Iranian economy heave a sigh of relief which has been stifled because of the US sanctions besides enhancing Pakistan's role in neighbouring Afghanistan. It is hoped that the situation will improve big deal in the aftermath of Sino-Iranian cooperation.
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