What to Expect from US-Taliban Deal?

The recent thaw in the US-Taliban tensions has come in the form of a peace deal at Doha, Qatar where the billegerents signed up for a better future. No doubt Pakistan has done everything possible to make it happen from arrangement of dialogue to the transformation of talks into a peace deal.

The peace agreement, signed on 29 February, has 4 key elements including: a surity by Taliban that they will not allow foreign armed groups to use Afghanistan as a launchpad to conduct attacks; the complete withdrawal of the US-led forces; an intra-Afghan dialogue and a ceasefire.

The chronology of events which took place ever since USA engaged in peace talks with Afghan Taliban up until today can be well understood from the image below.

There is no doubt the recent talks are going to have longlasting effects on the overall security situation of the Afghani people who hitherto have been living under continued oppresion for the last 40 years. The fate, which had always brought tyranny after tyranny for these people, is now bound to smile on them for the peace deal is likely to shake up the whole system within the trouble-striken country.

Afghan Taliban had earlier refused to sit with Afghan govt on the pretext of it being a puppet of the US. Moreover, Taliban rightfully represent the Pashtoon faction of Afghanistan as opposed to Tajiks and Uzbeks being supported by the US and its allies. Now the Taliban as major stakeholders, Afghan govt will take it with a pinch of salt to see them decide the fate of future Afghanistan. As the deal calls for withdrawal of all foreign troops from Afghanistan and release of Taliban in govt's custody, it has raised concerns from Afghan govt. Much to the Afghan govt's chagrin, which has ruled out the move, the US will have to arrange for the release of the imprisoned.

Let's understand who controls what in Afghanistan from this image below.

It is quite obvious that Afghan Taliban hold a big chunk of territory and are continuously contesting in considerable parts in rest of the area.

Following points can be well brought out:

A. Afghan Taliban are a potent force and rightly merit a stakeholder's status.

B. Afghan govt will find it hard to take on Taliban since they are now a declared political force.

C. After the exit of all foreign forces, Taliban will have a better ingress into the masses as the Afghanistan Security Forces, however trained by US, won't stand a chance against the natural warrior spirit of the Taliban.

D. The Tajik and Uzbek factions will have to give the rightful place to the Pashtoons who have been continuously ignored since the US has stepped in.

E. The use of Afghan soil againt Pakistan will be a difficult proposition now. That means pseudo-subnationalist movements will have a tough time here on.

Let's now see what impact this agreement is expected to have on Iran and Pakistan.

A.  Iran. Iran is Muslim country ruled by a theocratic regime since 1979. Despite strong sectarian disagreement with the Taliban ideology, she has covertly supported the former against the US. The US' exit will leave some breathing space for Iran since she has already been under threat from the US. A US-free Afghanistan would favour Iran increase its influence as well as provide favourable launch pads to other powers as opposed to the US. 

B. Pakistan. The very nation that supported Afghani people against the Soviets was blamed and targeted the most from Afghan soil. The time span from 1979 till 1991 saw Pakistan as the only game-changer for Afghanistan's war against Soviet Union but unfortunately the outflux of support from the US in early 90s changed the equation altogether. The series of events show that Pakistan has always been on the forefront to assist Afghanistan in dealing with myriad issues it has faced. The hosting of Aghan refugees for the last 40 years is unprecedented in the annals of history. Pakistan has always wanted and strived for a stable Afghanistan. The status of Taliban as major stakeholders has been Pakistan's longlasting stance. Pakistan has been demanding all stakeholders to sit together and decide a way forward for a better future but the propitious gales of harmony were destined to blow a little too late. With this deal taking place, Pakistan now has a hope of regional and internal stability. The “spoilers” may now be ably kept at bay for Pakistan has urged all stakeholders to be wary of the spoilers who would try their bit to derail the process of peace.

With all that has happened for the ultimate good of the region, we can hope that it will bring peace and prosperity for the people of Afghanistan. It is hoped that the deal will open new vistas for the region and we would see a flourishing Afghanistan again.